🔗 Share this article

Only two days before the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, a political analyst born and raised in the city, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win while failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

What was your night?

It was necessary since they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the system every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious initially: The candidate led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of votes added later and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible in which yesterday went somewhat badly for Mamdani, where Cuomo was going to end up basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. However Mamdani added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He went out and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, tenants and residents struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump previously went for the progressive now. However it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I figured we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to get over 50%. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still probably 200K ballots uncounted at that time. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it so then none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That really surprised me. The independent held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these Republicans on Staten Island with a high participation. I believe there was significant tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and residents supported the independent. Thus there existed some opposition. However no, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he scored between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he did?

There are areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key figures from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.