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The gravest possible consequences of the global heating for the UK have been mapped by researchers, ranging from a blistering 4C rise in average temperatures to a 6.5-foot surge in ocean levels. An alternative projection predicts a drop of 6C in temperature following the shutdown of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt agriculture and energy demand.

Credible Extremes, Not Guarantees

These effects, a number of which are connected to irreversible climate shifts, are viewed as unlikely but possible. The scientists stated that these scenarios plugged a hole in planning that had rendered the UK ill-prepared for worst-case results.

"The severe weather events we have detailed aren’t predictions, but they are credible," stated Nigel Arnell who directed the analysis. "Britain has been planning without the frameworks to assess extreme possibilities. We've now supplied decision-makers what they need to plan for climate outcomes they pray never occur, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Spectrum of Harsh Climate Scenarios

Another collection of worst-case scenarios sets out the potential extent of extreme weather between now and the year 2100. These show that thermometer readings could rocket in particular seasons by up to 6C above average, while rainfall could be triple normal levels.

The chance of the worst-case outcomes happening cannot be precisely determined due to a lack of certainty about what steps will be implemented to address global heating and how the Earth's systems will respond. This analysis was likened to defence planning or resilience checks for financial systems.

Key Scenario Highlights

• Severe Heating: Global temperatures rising well above 4C by 2100 could occur if emissions cuts fails or if vicious cycles like the Amazon rainforest becoming a net carbon source emit its huge repository of carbon. This would result in intense and enduring heat domes and water shortages affecting the UK in summer.
• AMOC Shutdown: A major ocean current, the North Atlantic current, is losing strength and showing signs of collapse due to climate change. A complete failure commencing by 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Agriculture would be severely challenged and water supplies would be fundamentally reshaped," noted Arnell.
• Sudden Ocean Inundation: A surge of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could happen if polar ice in Greenland and Antarctica collapse rapidly, flooding seaside communities. Differing from the other scenarios, this risk is already known by coastal engineers.
• Clean Air Warming: Global averages could also be pushed higher by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is rapidly cleaned up. This paradoxical outcome occurs because tiny specks from fossil fuel combustion scatter solar radiation from reaching the ground.

Preparing for the Extreme

The worst-case scenarios could be utilized in planning the development of critical national infrastructure, such as new towns, energy plants and water management networks. Understanding these environmental threats could also hasten the push to reduce carbon pollution.

The analysis developed the extreme models using a blend of past data and records, computer simulations and scientific theory. The scenarios do not take into account potential global problems such as the devastation of food supplies and resource wars.

The project was requested as part of a government’s risk assessment framework. Previous assessments have stated that too little consideration was being paid to high-consequence, low-probability risks.

Official experts has recommended that the UK needs to "adapt to 2C" and examine the dangers for four degrees. Past policy documents have been described as being "insufficient" by environmental groups.

An official statement noted: "Global warming is at the heart of the country's focus, both adapting for the future and becoming a renewable energy leader. It is vital that the UK is resilient for the consequences."